The impact of political parties and coalition building on Tunisia's democratic future

This paper examines political parties in Tunisia's National Constituent Assembly as a method to evaluate prospects for the country's democratic future. After reviewing relevant literature on democratic transitions and the relationship between religion and democracy, particularly in the Arab World, it considers Tunisia's prominent parties and coalitions. The political parties' histories of activism, personalism, competition, and weakly differentiated platforms have contributed to the rapid stabilisation of a fragmented party system. While game theory supports the view that the multiplicity of secular opposition parties would benefit from coalition building or mergers, Tunisian parties have taken few concrete steps towards integration. Furthermore, such efforts must consider the possibility of radicalising the on-going debate on the role of religion: a perceived threat from an adamantly secular opposition could alienate Ennahdha, forcing it to acquiesce to more extreme voices in an effort to maintain its dominance. It is unlikely, however, that the future of Tunisia's young democracy will depend solely upon the number and organisation of its parties, but will rather rely on how the new political actors respond to the myriad other challenges of political development. Those challenges are also opportunities for political differentiation on non-religious grounds that could contribute to the foundation of a dynamic, effective, and representative political system.