Assessment of a Ballistic Missile Defense System

This article presents a complete and self-contained analysis that assesses the effectiveness of a Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS). It does that by applying several techniques such as the properties of stochastic processes, the use of dynamical programing, the concept of generating functions and the applications of orbital mechanics. A step-by-step description starting from the computation of the number of engagement opportunities to the calculation of the probability of raid negation to the evaluation of the probability of integrated system effectiveness is introduced. The analysis also compares firing tactics in terms of effectiveness and inventory savings, assesses their contributions and limitations, as well as determines the driving parameters of a BMDS. New and optimal firing tactics based on more than one category of engagement opportunity are also described. The concept of redundancy and the possibility of boost-phase engagement are also explored in order to evaluate their impacts on the effectiveness of a BMDS.