The Determinants of Livestock Prices in Niger

Not only does livestock make an important contribution to rural incomes and export earnings in the Sahel, it is also kept as insurance against weather risk. Fluctuations in livestock prices can therefore trigger food entitlement failures. Using monthly price data from Niger, we show that livestock prices respond to droughts and pasture availability. They are also exposed to aggregate shifts in export revenues and meat demand that affect Niger and its southern neighbour, Nigeria. These shifts add an important element of risk to the livelihood of Sahelian farmers and pastoralists. Famine early-warning systems should keep an eye not only on weather shocks but also on macroeconomic conditions and other factors affecting the livestock economy.