Fatalism and revolution: expanding our understanding of fatalism during a unique political opening in Egypt

Fatalism is the belief that major life events are outside of our individual control. We examine two distinct types of fatalism - theological and empirical fatalism - in Egypt during a unique 'moment of madness' immediately following the revolution of 2011 when the political system was in upheaval and many thought all things were politically possible. Drawing on a non-proportional quota survey of 136 Egyptian metropolitan adults in the midst of the 2012 Egyptian Presidential elections, we find that empirical fatalism (belief that fate controls) and theological fatalism (belief that an omniscient God controls) are uncorrelated and have quite distinct social correlates and implications for protest action. Empirical fatalism is tied to being older and female and is a significant deterrent to protest potential. Theological fatalism, which is more widespread, is stronger among the less educated and men but has no effects on protest potential. In contrast with arguments about the anti-modernism of Islamic beliefs, Muslims in general and the more intensely religious Muslims are less likely to be empirically fatalistic. Our results suggest that, at least in Egypt, there are at least two distinct types of fatalism and, while empirical fatalism discourages protests, theological fatalism does not. We discuss the implications of these findings for the further study of fatalism and its impact on political and social action.