Lock-in effect in the Russian-Libyan economic relations in the post-Arab Spring period

This paper analyses the impact of Libya's regime change in the post-Arab Spring period on its economic relations with Russia. It shows the usefulness of path dependence theory as an instrument to explain the rapprochement between the two countries and renewal of their joint projects after the Arab Spring. The paper argues that path-dependent factors related to pre-revolution contracts signed between Russia and the Gaddafi regime in the gas and oil industries, the military sphere, and transportation constrained the ability of Libya?s new political elites to significantly decrease Russia's economic presence in the country. The major implication that can be drawn from the analysis of the impact of Libya's regime change on its bilateral ties with Russia is that path dependence plays a significant role in the formation of foreign policy.