The Uruguay Round and Africa: A Global, General Equilibrium Analysis

Using a 10-region, 12-sector model of the global economy, projected forward to 2005 with and without implementation of the Uruguay Round (UR) trade agreements, we confirm earlier expectations that Africa is likely to be the only major region of the world to lose from UR implementation -- but find that UR-induced costs would be far outweighed by the potential gains from catching up with other lowincome countries in agricultural productivity and in transport costs. Furthermore, we find that implementing the UR accelerates a resourcedriven shift in Africa's comparative advantage towards agriculture (as opposed to mining or manufacturing) and towards trade with Asia (as opposed to Europe). Recognising and supporting this 'Asia/agriculture' development strategy will be a key to raising African incomes over the coming decade.