Assessing the results of general equilibrium studies of multilateral trade negotiations

This paper is about what we can actually say about the Uruguay Round (UR) four years after implementation began, and how this compares to the calibration-based assessments that circulated at the end of the UR. The ultimate goal is to draw lessons on how to approach the assessment of the next round so that useful insights are extracted and misperceptions avoided. The paper first offers an overview of the CGE models employed or referenced by International Organizations at the close of the UR implementation. Some conclusions from this exercise, and recommendations for assessment of the next sets of multilateral negotiations), are then discussed.