Balancing the peace-trade equation in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area: Possibilities, Probabilities, and Evidence
Balancing the peace-trade equation in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area: Possibilities, Probabilities, and Evidence
While the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is envisaged to create a single African continental market with a population of about 1.3 billion people and a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of approximately US$ 3.4trillion that will deepen economic integration, promote industrialisation and promote sustainable socio-economic development, it is the presence and persistence of various forms of violent conflicts, unconstitutional change of governments, and political instability in Africa that pose a serious threat to the achievement of AfCFTA goals and objectives. Currently, Africa is confronted with over thirty-five (35) armed conflicts in several countries, mostly in West Africa, Central Africa, and the Horn of Africa sub-regions. Whereas there has been a general belief and hope that the AfCFTA may balance off the trade-peace equation in Africa by enhancing trade, which may in turn promote peace and political stability, there has not been much critical interrogation of the evidence, trends, and patterns to substantiate such assumptions. Using evidence, trends, and patterns of conflict in Africa, this paper examines the possibilities and probabilities of attaining trade-induced peace on the continent through the implementation of the AfCFTA. Methodologically, the paper makes use of the International Futures (IFs) Model, a comprehensive integrated modelling system used as a forecasting tool, to establish the prospects, possibilities, and probabilities of a trade-peace equation in Africa within the next seven years (2023-2030), focusing on four variables of Africa's trade-peace equation under existing regional Free Trade Areas (FTAs), state failure risk, governance effectiveness, and poverty and inequality levels. Secondary data sources are also used to augment the analysis, while the Trade-Peace Nexus concept provides conceptual frames of analysis. The research findings provide fresh ideas and perspectives on how several peace initiatives can be mainstreamed for the successful implementation of the AfCFTA and striking a balance in the trade-peace equation within the framework of the AfCFTA.
CITATION: Vhumbunu, Clayton Hazvinei. Balancing the peace-trade equation in Africa through the African Continental Free Trade Area: Possibilities, Probabilities, and Evidence . London : Adonis & Abbey Publishers , 2024. Journal of African Union Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2024, pp. 105–127 - Available at: https://library.au.int/balancing-peace-trade-equation-africa-through-african-continental-free-trade-area-possibilities