Demography and the development potential of sub-Saharan Africa

Demography and the development potential of sub-Saharan Africa

Author: 
Malberg, BO
Place: 
Uppsala
Publisher: 
Nordiska Afrikainstitutet
Phys descriptions: 
39p., tables, maps, charts
Date published: 
2008
Record type: 
Region: 
ISBN: 
978-91-7106-621-3
Call No: 
314(66/67) MAL
Abstract: 

This is one of five background papers for the White Paper on Africa that the Swedish government will submit to parliament in early 2008. It presents historical and future demographic trends in sub-Saharan African and relates them to the social and economic trends in the Sub-continent. The main analytical tool is the current theory of the demographic transition and there is an emphasis on comparing sub-Saharan Africa's development to trends in other parts of the world. There are three main conclusions: 1. Sub-Saharan Africa is currently about halfway through the transition from high to low death and birth rates. A mid-20 century reduction in death rates has generated a period of rapid population increase. Only in the last 25 years have there been clear signs of declining fertility and the decline has been slow and has a t times stalled. 2. Many of the socioeconomic trends that have characterised sub-Saharan Africa during the last decades (stagnating per capita income, high poverty rates, environmental degradation, current account deficits, widespread use of child labour, violent internal conflicts, rapid urbanisation and increasing migration flows) are typical of countries that are in a phase of rapid population growth, high rates of child dependency and a rapidly increasing young adult population. If sub-Saharan Africa succeeds in completing the demographic transition by establishing low fertility rates and further reductions in mortality, this is likely to generate the same type of positive economic effect that has been seen in East Asia, India and Latin America. 3. Efficient policies that promote health, increases in education and improvements in infrastructure can be pivotal for a shift towards more favourable demographic trends. The AIDS epidemic is devastating, but probably possible to control provided appropriate measures are pursued vigorously.

Language: 
Series: 
Current African issues; No.38

CITATION: Malberg, BO. Demography and the development potential of sub-Saharan Africa . Uppsala : Nordiska Afrikainstitutet , 2008. - Available at: https://library.au.int/demography-and-development-potential-sub-saharan-africa-3