Educational Attainment in Developing Countries: New Estimates and Projections Disaggregated by Gender

July 1995 Expectations are that educational attainment will grow most in the Middle East and North Africa and least in Sub-Saharan Africa. It should improve greatly in South Asia, where the level of attainment is lowest. The gender gap in education may have risen in the past decade. This trend will continue unless countries intensify their efforts to educate girls. Ahuja and Filmer present new estimates of educational attainment in 71 developing countries for the years 1985, 1990, and 1995. They also project levels of educational attainment through the year 2020 by using the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization's projections of enrollment and the International Labour Organization's projections of population by age and sex. The projections suggest interesting trends: Growth of stock in human capital is expected to be highest in the Middle East and North Africa and lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. South Asia--currently the least educated part of the world--is expected to substantially augment its stock of human capital by the year 2020. In most regions, enrollment levels are expected to remain lower for girls than for boys. The gender gap in education may have risen in the past decade. This trend toward a widening of the gender gap may continue unless countries intensify their efforts to educate girls. This paper--a product of the Office of the Vice President, Development Economics--was prepared as a background paper for World Development Report 1995 on labor. Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Deon Filmer may be contacted at dfilmer@worldbank.org(link sends e-mail).