Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate

Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate

Author: 
Fedderke, Johannes W.
Publisher: 
John Wiley & Sons Publishing Company
Date published: 
2017
Record type: 
Responsibility: 
Daniel K. Mengisteab, jt. author
Journal Title: 
South African Journal of Economics
Source: 
South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 85, No. 2, June 2017, pp. 161-177
Subject: 
Abstract: 

This paper estimates the potential output of the South African economy using several filters. We demonstrate that potential output measures are very sensitive to the different methodologies. We also provide estimates of South Africa's potential growth rate over the 1960-2015 period. Current estimates of the potential growth rate fall in the 1.9%-2.3% range. However, the evidence suggests that the rate is under considerable downward pressure. South African potential growth may be headed toward the 1% range. The strongest decline is in the real sectors of the economy (Manufacturing, Mining), the greatest resilience in the service sectors (financial in particular).

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Country focus: 

CITATION: Fedderke, Johannes W.. Estimating South Africa's Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate . : John Wiley & Sons Publishing Company , 2017. South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 85, No. 2, June 2017, pp. 161-177 - Available at: https://library.au.int/estimating-south-africas-output-gap-and-potential-growth-rate