Exploring the Socio-Demographic Distribution of Independent Swing Voters in Ghana

Ghana has become a two-party state by default, with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) emerging as the only political parties with sufficient national appeal to win elections and form governments. Through the power of the ballot, each of them has had the chance of being in government as well as serving as the official opposition. Notwithstanding their dominance in Ghana's democratic politics, neither party has the support of more than forty percent of the country's electoral population. This leaves a significant proportion of the electorate unaligned to any political party. Given that candidates in presidential elections in Ghana can only win with more than 50% of valid votes cast, swing voters undoubtedly hold the balance of power. Yet, scholarly attention to this category of voters in emerging democracies has been marginal. Using a Ghana national opinion poll survey conducted in 2019 in which 27% of respondents self-identified as independent voters, this paper explores the social and demographic characteristics of these voters. The result is surprising and indicates that the regions and ethnic categories considered as strongholds of the two major parties also hold the highest proportion of independent swing voters.