Forecasting non-residents' monthly entries to Tunisia and accuracy comparison of time-series methods

Forecasting non-residents' monthly entries to Tunisia and accuracy comparison of time-series methods

Author: 
Klabi, Fethi
Publisher: 
Taylor & Francis Group
Date published: 
2014
Record type: 
Journal Title: 
The Journal of North African Studies
Source: 
Journal of North African Studies,Vol. 19, No. 5, December 2014, pp. 770-791
Abstract: 

The main objective of this article is to model and forecast non-residents' entries to the Tunisian tourist destination (North Africa). Five methods are applied, namely seasonal naïve 1, seasonal naïve 2, Holt–Winters seasonal multiplicative model, SARIMA and SARIMAX, incorporating the effects of political shocks Tunisia went through during the last 10 years. Although no clear-cut conclusions can be drawn and despite seasonal naïve 1 and Holt–Winters satisfactory performances, in-sample and out-of-sample forecast error calculations reveal that the SARIMAX is overall the most accurate method. On this basis, optimistic and pessimistic forecast scenarios are settled and managerial recommendations are proposed with the objective of improving Tunisian tourism policies.

Language: 
Country focus: 

CITATION: Klabi, Fethi. Forecasting non-residents' monthly entries to Tunisia and accuracy comparison of time-series methods . : Taylor & Francis Group , 2014. Journal of North African Studies,Vol. 19, No. 5, December 2014, pp. 770-791 - Available at: https://library.au.int/forecasting-non-residents-monthly-entries-tunisia-and-accuracy-comparison-time-series-methods-36