Inflation Dynamics in the CEMAC Region

This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in non-core inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.