Investing in Prevention: An International Strategy to Manage Risks of Instability and Improve Crises Response

Interdependence is the governing characteristic of modern international relations. The suffering of people in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of Congo is a human tragedy on a huge scale. Instability around the globe also affects our own security, stability and property. It is possible to make a real difference to our collective security through shifting the international effort towards prevention. An international consensus is needed on how to make this shift. This report is intended to be a practical contribution towards forging this consensus. Instability and crises are likely to be an enduring part of the international landscape for the foreseeable future. 2003 saw 14 wars, 21 severe crises and 45 crises situations unfold around the world. The UN was engaged in 14 peace support missions and 68 separate peace talks or negotiations. 2003 is not likely to have been an anomaly. Recent data on 2004 shows that instability remains a significant phenomenon within the international system, with 18 countries experiencing major political violence during the year and another six possible emerging crises. At the end of 2004 the UN was running 16 peacekeeping operations, with another one in the planning stages. Looking ahead, stabilising future trends are likely to be counter-balanced by a number of powerful destabilizing forces. Stabilising trends include economic growth, national and regional governance and improved counter-terrorism cooperation. Destabilizing trends include unresolved conflicts, HIV/AIDS, strategic competition for oil, local environmental scarcity and climate change. Instability can manifest itself in a range of ways including economic crisis, political coups, civil war, and in the most extreme case state failure. The international community cannot afford to lurch form crisis to crisis. The cost of crisis is extremely high, most of all in terms of human lives lost and disrupted. The financial cost of intervention in crises is considerable, and peacekeeping forces are facing overstretch. In an interdependent world instability impacts us all and affects a range of important objectives: humanitarian protection, maintenance of human rights, poverty reduction, security, energy security, and combating terrorism and organised crime.