Linear thinking in a nonlinear world: the obvious choice is often wrong

The article identifies four types of nonlinear relationships, and illustrates how linear thinking can produce judgment errors in situations when nonlinear phenomena are involved. The four nonlinear relationships are: increasing gradually, then rising more steeply; decreasing gradually, then dropping rapidly; rising quickly, then tapering off; dropping sharply, then gradually. Alleviating the negative impact of linear bias includes determining the type of nonlinear issue being addressed, focusing on outcomes rather than indicators, mapping nonlinear issues whenever possible, and raising awareness of linear bias.