The Modeler Meets the SME: The Challenge of Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Models of Terrorist Decision Making

Terrorism risk assessment and management involves a unique set of modeling challenges. A special problem is that the expertise required to address those challenges lies divided between two communities: risk assessment modelers working in the probabilistic risk assessment paradigm, and subject matter experts (“SMEs”) working in terrorist psychology. SMEs don't fully understand what Modelers bring to the table, and Modelers don't fully understand what SMEs bring to the table. The two cultures sit at different tables, unable to communicate effectively, and the nation comes out behind. This article takes the form of a dialogue between a Modeler and a SME, describing the different perspectives of modelers and SMEs. We discover critical modeling shortfalls arising from the differing world views of those two cultures. Out of our dialogue, we develop a solution in the form of a new modeling paradigm, based on combining the relative strengths of the two communities.