Modelling the impact of the ‘fast track’ land reform policy on Zimbabwe's maize sector

Zimbabwe has recently gone through a widely criticised land reform process that is argued to be the cause of subdued agricultural production. This paper attempts to present a counterfactual picture of the maize market in Zimbabwe had land reform been managed appropriately. The counterfactual is developed through a partial equilibrium framework in order to quantify the impact of the land reform programme. This, to our knowledge, is the first attempt at applying a partial equilibrium framework to an analysis of the impact of land reform. The results of the post-2000 land reform policy simulation showed that actual total maize output was lower than what could have been produced if it was under a pre-2000 land reform system. The study validates the assertion that land reforms contributed to the contraction of output. These results suggest the need for a well planned and executed land reform process, which can still play an important role in output growth and food security.