'Poll poison'?: Politicians and polling in the 2007 Kenya election

The debate continues about the causes of the post-election violence that led to the most serious challenge to Kenya's national integrity since independence. However, there is one aspect of the pre-election period about which there is little disagreement: the far more frequent and widely disseminated results of opinion surveys by several research organisations than in any previous election year. Often controversial and provoking highly acrimonious exchanges, these polls and the alleged motives of those behind them became central features of the various campaigns. While their precise contribution to the violence cannot be determined, this analysis makes use of a selection of such results to consider this issue while arguing that: (1) they achieved considerable accuracy in tracking fluctuations in the candidates' standings in what was a very fluid political landscape; (2) the reactions to them highlighted enduring and significant commonalities within the political class; and (3) this polling experience is certain to have longer-term effects on the country's political culture.