Prospects for fertility decline in high fertility countries: Population bulletin of the United Nations

The present report contains he proceedings of the Workshop on Prospects for Fertility Decline in High Fertility Countries, including 15 papers presented by researchers from around the world. The objectives of the Workshop were to investigate the conditions that hinder or facilitate fertility decline, provide insights into the prospects for fertility decline and indicate policy measures that may facilitate fertility decline. Despite the appreciable fertility decline in many developing countries during the second half of the twentieth century, by the period 1995 to 2000 there remained 47 countries where the total fertility rate stood at or above 5 children per woman. Thirty-six of these countries are in Africa, 10 in Asia and one in Oceania. The United Nations publication World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision suggest that rapid growth is expected among the group of 47 countries: their population will almost double, from 745 million in 2000 to 1.4 billion in 2025. The majority of those countries are also classified as least developed and are heavily indebted. Moreover, in the majority of them school enrolment is very low, especially among women; marriage is almost universal; infant mortality rates are above 100 per 1,000 live births; fertility preferences are high, around 5 children; contraceptive use is very low; and abortion remains illegal. The report presents the following main findings of the Workshop: 1. Transition towards lower fertility seems to have begun in most of the countries. Six are progressing through the incipient stage of fertility transition. However, in 11 countries, fertility transition has not yet begun. 2. Poor educational enrolment, especially for women, low contraceptive use and high infant mortality were among the most consistent factors found to hinder fertility decline. Such factors as continuing high fertility preferences and lack of accessibility to affordable contraceptive methods could lead to stagnation in the total fertility rate, mitigating other depressive influences. 3. The impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, persistent economic hard-ships and civil conflict also affect fertility in unanticipated ways. In some affected countries, recent declines in fertility may not be sustained. 4. The prospects for fertility decline are linked to a large degree to propitious changes in the factors mentioned above. However, these changes are unlikely to be rapid. Hence, by 2025, the average number of children per woman is likely to fall to around 4 in he current high fertility countries.