Shifting tax burdens through exemptions and evasion: An empirical investigation of Uganda

This paper investigates the impacts of tax reforms implemented in Uganda in the mid-1990s on the prevalence of tax evasion and exemptions among firms, and their effects on the distribution and dispersion of tax burdens. Based on firm-level data collected from 243 firms, we observe that evasion and exemptions were widespread and that their prevalence actually increased during tax reforms. We use three-stage least squares to simultaneously estimate tax burdens, evasion and exemption patterns in 1995 and 1997. We find that tax exemptions benefit large businesses to a disproportionate degree, while evasion is more common among small businesses. This creates a situation in which medium-sized firms shoulder a disproportionate tax burden.