Static and Dynamic Determinants of Earned Value Based Time Forecast Accuracy

It is well-known that well managed and controlled projects are more likely to be delivered on time and within budget. The construction of a (resource-feasible) baseline schedule and the follow-up during execution are primary contributors to the success or failure of a project. Earned value management systems have been set up to deal with the complex task of controlling and adjusting the baseline project schedule during execution. Although earned value systems have been proven to provide reliable estimates for the follow-up of cost performance, they often fail to predict the total duration of the project. In this chapter, results of a large simulation study to evaluate the forecast accuracy of earned value based predictive metrics are presented. No detailed mathematical calculations are presented in the chapter, but instead an overview from a project life cycle point-of-view is presented. Details can be found at the end of the chapter (key terms and definitions) or in the references cited throughout this chapter.