Uganda's ruling coalition and the 2021 elections: change, continuity and contestation

Since coming to power, President Museveni has consistently stitched together disparate actors and representatives of divergent constituencies in his ruling coalition. This became especially necessary as his rule grew less popular and more precarious. This article argues that the nature of the ruling coalition reflects the structure of politics and menu of priorities for the incumbent. The political landscape shapes composition of the ruling coalition, which mirrors realignment of social forces, interest groups and balance of power. This article casts a critical spotlight on two phases - 1986-2005 and 2006 to the present - placing coalition dynamics and the 2021 elections in the broader context of the shift in Uganda's overall political landscape. Drawing on qualitative data sources including elite interviews and newspaper reports, and with specific focus on cabinet appointments, the article shows that electoral calculations and regime survival considerations are the biggest drivers of Museveni's ruling coalition changes and composition.