Briefing: Why Goodluck Jonathan lost the Nigerian presidential election of 2015

“A do or die affair” is a common description of Nigerian elections, which underlines the competitiveness and acrimony that characterize the quadrennial political ritual. The recently concluded 2015 general elections were fiercer than most, with expectations that they would end in a contentious stalemate at best, and engulf the country in violent political crisis at worst. Many people stockpiled food, the affluent and many expatriate workers took strategically timed holidays abroad, and Nigerians in regions of the country distant from their birthplaces sent their families home in expectation of a prolonged post-election crisis. Yet, in the end, the actual conduct and outcome of the elections defied expectations. Not only did Nigeria conduct its most credible and transparent elections since independence with minimal violence but, for the first time in the country's history, an opposition party – the All Progressives Congress (APC) – defeated an entrenched ruling party (the Peoples' Democratic Party, PDP). The peaceful and credible conduct of these polls has set Nigeria on a trajectory towards consolidating its democracy, transitioning from a largely unstable and expedient experiment in 1999 to the realm of political maturity. This briefing discusses how this was achieved despite the challenging context. The federation of Nigeria operates a presidential system in which elections to executive and legislative positions take place every four years. These elections also take place across thirty-six federal states for the state governors and legislators, and in the Federal Capital Territory. Federal and state executives are constitutionally permitted a maximum of two terms each. The competitiveness inherent in presidential systems worldwide is heightened in Nigeria's case by the immense power, resources, influence and perks constitutionally granted to the President, who directly commands both the army and the police, and appoints both the cabinet and the boards of over 700 parastatals. Historically, …