Non-monetary Determinants of Inflation Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria

There is a large literature on the impact of exchange rate and monetary policy regimes on inflation volatility in emerging markets. Other determinants of inflation volatility are less well understood. Using monthly time-series data on the prices of ninety-six individual products in thirty-seven Nigerian states, I explore the non-monetary state-specific characteristics that drive local inflation volatility. Among the significant determinants of volatility are average inflation, transport and communication infrastructure, consumer access to credit markets and urbanisation. However, there is substantial heterogeneity across products in the relative importance of these factors. We discuss the implications of our results for development policy.