Issues in Comparing Poverty Trends Over Time in Cote d'Ivoire

January 1997 Exploring poverty trends across regions and socioeconomic groups raises questions about the pattern of change and the reliability of the data and the methods used to derive poverty estimates. Secondary data cast some doubt on certain survey findings, suggesting that they may be more an artifact of survey data than a reflection of real economic trends. Cote d'Ivoire is one of the few African countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that conducted household surveys between 1985 and 1995. These surveys make it possible to trace changes in urban and rural poverty and changes in poverty among different socioeconomic groups. During the decade surveyed, the country experienced a major recession. Economic recovery began only with the devaluation of the CFA franc in January 1994. Poverty increased substantially during the recession and did not diminish in the year after devaluation, in part because much of the increase in export crop prices, especially for cocoa, was taxed away. Moreover, the effects of the recession and devaluation were not uniform. Between 1988 and 1993, urban poverty increased faster than rural poverty did, though mean expenditures in urban areas remained substantially above mean expenditures in rural areas. And food crop farmers apparently suffered more than export crop farmers. These trends persisted after devaluation. But exploring poverty trends across regions and socioeconomic groups raises questions about the patterns of change and the reliability of the data and the methods used to derive poverty estimates. Secondary data cast some doubt on certain survey findings, suggesting that they may be more an artifact of the survey data than a reflection of real economic trends. These problems are not unique to Cote d'Ivoire. Results from surveys in Uganda and to a lesser extent Ghana have also raised issues of comparability. The ability to draw r...