Linear thinking in a nonlinear world: the obvious choice is often wrong

Linear thinking in a nonlinear world: the obvious choice is often wrong

Author: 
De Langhe, Bart
Publisher: 
Harvard Business School Press
Date published: 
2017
Record type: 
Responsibility: 
Puntoni, Stefano, jt. author
Larrick, Richard, jt. author
Journal Title: 
Harvard Business Review
Source: 
Harvard Business Review, Vol. 95, No. 3, May-June 2017, pp. 130-139
Abstract: 

The article identifies four types of nonlinear relationships, and illustrates how linear thinking can produce judgment errors in situations when nonlinear phenomena are involved. The four nonlinear relationships are: increasing gradually, then rising more steeply; decreasing gradually, then dropping rapidly; rising quickly, then tapering off; dropping sharply, then gradually. Alleviating the negative impact of linear bias includes determining the type of nonlinear issue being addressed, focusing on outcomes rather than indicators, mapping nonlinear issues whenever possible, and raising awareness of linear bias.

Language: 

CITATION: De Langhe, Bart. Linear thinking in a nonlinear world: the obvious choice is often wrong . : Harvard Business School Press , 2017. Harvard Business Review, Vol. 95, No. 3, May-June 2017, pp. 130-139 - Available at: http://library.au.int/linear-thinking-nonlinear-world-obvious-choice-often-wrong