Political deadlock in Chad

With thousands of refugees streaming over the border from the Central African Republic into Chad in recent months, the security situation in the latter country has become the subject of increased international concern. Suffering from serious military and human insecurity, and trapped in a political deadlock, Chad seems ill equipped to cope with such an influx. This briefing aims to provide an overview of the internal and international dynamics that led to this deadlock, and which continue to make Chad a security concern. N’Djaména, the capital of Chad, is today controlled by the long-serving regime of President Idriss Déby Itno, a fact that many observers might greet with surprise.1 Since 2004, the regime has confronted several coup attempts,2 large-scale defections from the army, and an empty treasury. At the beginning of 2006 all the odds seemed to be against Déby. With the Darfur conflict spilling over the border, political instability in the east of the country, and the Sudanese supporting Chadian rebels, the threat of a takeover by armed opposition groups seemed to have gained momentum. Three major and several smaller armed opposition groups were active in the east of the country, and on 13 April 2006 one of these groups, the Front uni pour le changement démocratique (FUCD), launched a surprise attack on N’Djaména. In spite of this President Déby was re-elected for a third term just a few weeks later, albeit through fraudulent elections. Heavy fighting between armed opposition groups and the regular Chadian army in the east of the country continued.